Usdcad Analysis for 2015
I have the pleasure of going a long
way with this currency pair, not just because the last analysis I posted on my
blog was on Usdcad, but because I have a view of its past and present
movement ; and the analytical and
forecasting tool for the future. From July 2014 when I started the journey, I
have made predictions with excellent precision.
Usdcad broke out of a horizontal
channel. Few could explain one reason or the other for the recent bullish move,
yours sincerely is among the lucky few. The last post on Usdcad on 23rd
December 2014 can attest to that. In the post, I also stated a possible bearish
return from 1.1715-1.1800. Presently I am in a bullish position with 100pips
profit risking just 40pips.
With my recent analysis which I
will soon share with you, I expect a return soon, but at some forecasted Price
Reversal Zones
You will need an-above-average
knowledge of Elliot wave theory and Fibonacci analysis to absorb all I will
state below. If you need an e-book on Elliot wave and fibonacci analysis, you
can mail me at forexmaster05@yahoo.com
or fix a mentorship program with me and I will use all necessary tools to
simplify the studies for you.
OK. Let’s get started.
Going by the long term, weekly
chart I can say between January 2002 and November 2007 ( a period of almost
6years), price moved in a way that would have interested many core Elliot wave
analysts around the world. Price moved in five non-overlaping waves, what we refer
to as an Impulsive move which was bearish. There are a few things that are even
more interesting about this move.
·
The fifth wave of the Primary Impulsive move was
extended and not surprisingly, the fifth wave of the extended wave 5 was also
extended.
·
One would expect a fast move to the region of
the wave 4 of the primary impusive wave. Price did just that
After the completion of the
Impulsive wave with all the internal wave structures well formed, price rallied
to 50% retracement of the 6-years Impulsive move to 1.3050 ( March 2009) in 2 years and
4 months. The completion of an impulsive move must be followed by a corrective
pattern which was not known as of the time.
Presently after another 5 years 10
months from March 2009, price has moved up and down in a wavy pattern.
The bullish correction to 1.3050 in
2009 is labeled as the ‘A’ corrective leg of a projected ‘ABC’ zigzag
corrective pattern which was followed by a bearish move , labeled ‘B’ leg of
the formative correction ( more that 78.6% correction of A) which ended in July
2011 and followed by an impulsive five wave move which I have been discussing since
the second half of last year.
In the long term, this current impulsive move
from 2011 is probably part of the ‘C’ leg of the projected zigzag corrective
pattern. The ‘C’ leg should take us to 1.35xx and 1.46xx in the years to come,
probably a period of 3-4 years. In the nearer term, what is expected is the
completion of the fifth wave of the first 5-wave drive of ‘C’. This completion
could take us to 1.06xx before the long term bullish move resumes.
That is where we were coming from
and with the eyes of forecasting, we can see where we could be in the coming
years. This will help us to prepare further for the task ahead. We will also
adjust and re-analyse as price move further.
It’s a projection, it’s what could
happen. While admitting the fact that we should only trade what is happening
only but the importance of knowing what could happen can’t be ignored. We can
see the present from the the past and use the two to forecast the future while
we wait for it.
Zooming down to lower time frame, 4
hour chart, what we could see is a five wave impulsive move beautifully
positioned in a channel. With the fifth wave heading to the roof of the
channel, we can only wait for a reversal which is imminent.
The fifth wave of the 4 hour
Impulsive move can be seen clearly on the 1hour time frame; which is expectedly
and clearly an impulsive move also. Bearishness is imminent.
What is my target zones of
reversal? Fibonacci tools will be of great help. With about 20 Fibonacci
projections of price from various important swing points, I have come with two
zones.
1. 1.1830-
1.1850 reversal zones are the most probable given the fact that they fall
within a strong horizontal ( resistance ) and diagonal ( trendlines ) resistive zones.
·
1.1830 is the 100% Price Projection of wave 1
from wave 4 of the hourly chart
·
1.1850 is the 61.8% Price Projection of waves 1
to 3 from 4 of the hourly chart
·
1.1850 is the 78.6% Price projection of wave 1
to 3 from 4 of the 4 hour chart
2. 1.1890-1.1920
reversal zone is the next if the first reversal zone is penetrated. This is
less probable than the first reversal zone considering the fact that it’s above
the strong resistive zone. But price can still get there after a brief
penetration above the resistive zone followed by an immediate return below it.
A bearish reversal candlestick
pattern on the daily or weekly chart, a divergence or any other reversal signal
will be enough to start a bearish journey if price gets to any of these zones.
Profit targets could be at 1.15xx,
1.12xx ,1.11xx depending on the entry and risk management.
I see dollar weakening against the
Canadian Dollar in the first half of 2015 as I expect a bearish move targeting
1.06xx.
These are probabilities and one is
expected to follow price as it unveils more information. How fast things can
change by events and economic happenings. Having a knowledge of what price is
doing and could do, will serve as a barometer and analytical compass for Us.
I update my blog regularly, you see
my old posts and download free e-books on Elliot wave and Fibonacci analysis .
If you are not in my mailing list,
you can forward a request to forexmaster05@yahoo.com
and I will send pdf of my Analysis, Elliot wave teachings and recommended
trades directly to your mail box.
You can also send a request for an
online mentorship course on the following market methodologies.
·
Elliot wave theory and Analysis
·
Fibonacci Analysis
·
Advanced Fibonacci Analysis
·
Momentum Analysis
·
Gann Analysis
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