Audusd: Can turn all bearish if 0.76 gives way

The wave (ii) was really very sharp as it was also empowered by the FOMC statement which meant that price broke above 61.8% retracement.

There seems to be another chance that for price to resume downside at 78.6% retracement.

A break below 0.76 could give a clearer picture that the downside would happen but if price breaks above 0.7675, it could squander any thought of a bearish continuation

Aussie: Deep correction or A genuine move?

The Aussie kept soaring even higher against our expectation. Our expectation for the continuation of the bearish trend will even take longer time if price breaks above 0.7845 labelled as the long term wave (4) as shown in the weekly chart below. If this happens, we will have to believe that the 4th wave will be deeper than the present level.



With the wave count above, there is an extended wave (3) and the 4th wave at 38.2% retracement of wave (3) (at 0.8370) will be the next resistance to watch out for if price breaks above the 0.7845 wave (4) barrier.

If the statement above will hold, the recent upward move that started in late May should be more of an impulse wave than a corrective.
The chart below shows this move is more corrective than impulsive and wave (4) could have ended at 0.7845 which is a shallow one just like we had in wave 4 of (3).



The corrective pattern above is a very deep double zigzag pattern (slightly above 78.6% retracement of the preceding bearish move).

If price breaks out of the channels downside, we may see a 5-wave impulsive bearish move  to 0.608.
0.7845 is the invalidation price level. A break above it would make this scenario invalid.

At intraday level, the chart below shows a double top chart pattern.



A break below the intra day channels could give a good short term selling opportunity with stop loss above 0.7755.

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Aussie: A case for the Bears

At the intra-day degree, the Aussie could be on a complex correction upside.

The correction, if completed as shown by the chart below, would be n expending flat corrective pattern. The



This correction is so deep and expected to be contained below 0.7677. A bridge above that level could be the first signal that the longer term bullish move might take over.

The last leg of this correction could be an ending diagonal.

If price moves as expected, a wild fall could be seen as price will attend to break below 0.745 in a quest to continue the bearish journey.

We are watching closely.

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