Two face Of Eurusd

I have for some time now keeping a bullish bias on this pair. After the very long term bearish correction, thinking the market will return from there is not a bad idea; after all markets,we are taught, rise and fall in time and price.

I have done some long term analysis which speculated a bullish resurgence. You can scroll down the blog to read them.

Price did rise from the zone I speculated and I really made a good run of profits, on two different occasions. 

The bullish move is expected to be an impulsive move. 

Any sign of corrective pattern could signal that price could still dip further to complete the last leg of the bearish run.

Viewing the intra day chart, I have two positions to satisfy the two scenarios mentioned above. 

 

The intraday movement of price around the intraday zone(in red) could make all the difference in determining where the breakout will occur.

The either movement will confirm any of the wave count that birthed it.

Let price decide and we can follow.

 

Multi-face Analysis of UsdCad

From mid-march, when the expected bearish reversal took a real turn and move down for more than 600pips, till the recent bullish move; price might have started a real bearish movement.

 

The long term bullish flat correction which started in 2007 is expected to have ended. The first impulsive wave downside followed by a prospective zigzag corrective wave 2. 

 

Price is expected to start a new impulsive journey to the downside which is expected to take 1.1920 ( the first wave low) and to 1.1250.

 

Candlestick analysis on the daily chart also support the bearish resumption. 

A double pin bar formation at a critical resistive zone and a negative (hidden)  divergence could push price downward in what could be a very fast move expecially if 1.2355 gives way in a 'breakout' way.

    

Nikkei 225 index at 15 years high....What for Yen?

Japanese stock index, Nikkei 225, nearing 15 years high. Massive impulsive move about to complete probably at 20600-50 level. Massive correction is expected to the south. This could spell something for the YEN

Posted by Sanmi Adeagbo on Sunday, May 24, 2015

UsdYen Intraday Congestion!

The bullish move which started in 2011 doesn't look exhausted, though getting to the last lap before a correction follows. 

 

The 5th wave of this impulsive move is an extended and one might think that if the top of the 3rd wave of the 5th wave is taken out, price can move in another extended move to 127 or 134.

 

 

Presently in the 4 hour chart, price is confined in a correction that looks like a double zigzag or flag chart pattern (if completed as illustrated in the analytical chart below). 

 

If price is held above 115.6 and price rallies from there, one could be thinking of 127 and later 134.

Eurusd Could Rally In A Decade

On 19th March 2015, I posted an analysis on why price could possibly come to the end of the long term bearish correction which lasted for about 7 years and dragged Euro from 1.6 to 1.1 ( more than 5500pips). Read here

We could also note the preceding bullish impulsive move from 2000 to 2008 ( a period slightly more than 7 and half years) that took Euro from 0.8 to 1.6, about 7800pips.

 

The retracement is about 70.7% ( infact trapped between 61.8% golden ratio and the 70.7% square golden ratio) retracement of the preceding bullish impulsive move ( move from 2000-2008). 

 

The 70.7% retracement supporting price movement shouldn't be surprising if we also take note that the ratio of 5500pips to 7800pips is about 0.707.

The Origin of the square golden ratio 0.707

 

Whether this is a coincidence or price is speaking in mathematical ratio, only time will tell.

 

This long term retracement has completed a double zig-zag corrective pattern and price is expected to rise in another years of bullish trend to break above 1.6 (Year 2008 high). 

 

 

The prospective long term bullish trend will expectedly subsume the daily and intra-day bullish and bearish trendy and corrective actions.

 

It's still a big debate which decides the other; fundamental or technical analysis?.

Fundamental analysis claims to know why things happen from decisions made while technical analysis studies the behaviour and forecast the decisions years before they are even made.

If Euro rises against the United states dollar above 1.6  to 1.8 in about a decade's time or more, I might have to believe the technicals are the winners.

 

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