Natural Gas As It Stands.

The sell off from 5.74 in February 2014 till April 2015 can be explained in two ways by the elliot waves theory. 

 

One labelled as a correction while the other as an impulsive move.

The wave count below shows that the dip from 5.74 is a mere correction and price is expected to rise in a new bullish impulsive move which could take few years to complete. 

 

This move is expected to break above 5.74 resistance and go higher. 

The push in April 2015 at 2.45 could be taken as a sub wave of the first wave of the prospective bullish impulsive move. 

 

Price is expected to rally from the present level ( or after a little intraday further dip) to 3.7 if this count will hold.

 

 

The second wave count (below) posits that the natural gas dip is a developing impulsive move and the recent bullish move is the fourth wave correction. 

The fourth wave appear shallow. Further rally is expected upside from the present price level to 3.53.

The two scenario forecast further move upside , one as a reversal and the other as a correction.

If price does rally further to 3.5 and breaks above it to 3.7,the second scenario will be invalid as the fourth wave will be trading in the region of wave 2 ( against elliot wave rule of impulse waves) and the first wave count will be the favourite.

On the other hand, if price rallies to 3.5 and bounces back to the south, the second wave count will be valid.

Right now, I expect price to continue the rally.

If price dips further to break 2.40 without advancing further, the counts will be re-done to re-analyse what price is speaking.