Tuesday, April 5, 2016

CABLE: Elliott Wave Interpretation

The bearishness of the cable started late 2007 after a long term bullish correction that ended at 2.1225. It wasn't unexpected - a trend often continues after a correction and Elliott wave theory among many other things, helps to distinguish between a trend and a correction.



Price dipped from 2.1225 to 1.4210 in an impulse wave with a truncated sub-wave 5. We saw a zigzag correction afterward to 1.7230 though shallow.

The continued dip from 1.7230 is meant to be a wave (3) and if for no other reason, the sub-wave 1 of (3) is strong.

The strength of the dollar to pound is expected to continue in a move that could make a pound sterling go for less than a dollar.

Presently, the sub-wave 3 of the 3rd wave is still in motion.

The chart below shows that this sub-wave 3 is maybe correcting for the last time before it completes its phase a long way below 1.3831.


The question now is- "do we have a corrective pattern to show that its 4th wave has concluded?".

More often than not, wave 4 corrects to the 4th sub-wave of  wave 3 of the same degree. So there is a possibility of the cable rallying to 1.4669 and its neighborhood before it completes its phase downward.

The chart below also shows a possible emerging pattern ( a zigzag pattern with a triangle as the second leg) to support a probable short term rally to 1. 4669 (after the completion of the triangle) before the long term dip continues.



Intraday Expectation: The 15m chart below shows that the last leg of the triangle wave e could be a double zigzag pattern and is expected to end above 1.4080.


We will wait for price to get to this level and see what happens from there.

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