Gbpusd Intraday Bullish Move Looks Corrective.

In the last update on the cable, we proposed a bullish move . The start of this bullish is expected to be an impulse sub-wave but right from the start of the move, it's been corrective. We wonder what alternative information price is passing across.

Keep track of our Cable intra-day analysis

 

We may be having an emerging double zigzag wave (iv) which may terminate at 1.3076-1.3124.

If price moves this way and then breaks below the rising channel, we will believe price has confirmed that the 5th wave is not yet complete. The scenario will require that we adjust our long term wave count as price may be on a journey to break below 1.29 and violate the longer term channel.

Note: We recommended a bullish trade from 1.2995 in our Telegram Channel with 85 pips stop loss. With this view, we have to adjust to 1.2977 (below the wave x of the double zigzag).

We will hold on to our previous bullish forecast if price breaks above 1.3124 powerfully otherwise we may have to think bearish.

Eurusd and Eurgbp Opportunities Amidst Reports

WILL EURO STRENGTHEN?

With high impacts reports coming from USD and EUR in some hours time, we will likely see some big moves in Eurusd. So there is a need to watch closely.

ECB President Draghi will speak in Frankfurt during which time the crude oil inventories data will be released in the U.S; all these will happen 30 minutes after Fed Chair Yellen's speech.

We have been looking at a the possibility of Euro rallying to 1.46-47 price region to complete the long term wave 4 triangle as shown in the chart below.

The chart below shows that the last leg of the triangle, if complete, will be a double zigzag. A strong move upside will confirm our stance for a bullish drive.

The chart below shows make up waves of the price action as it may start the journey upside. A 5-wave (which ended at 1.1279) break out of the second leg of the prospective double zigzag we mentioned above and a 3-wave pull back (1.1178) at 61.8% fibo-retracement. A solid move to break out of 1.1279 may see price getting to 1.146.

It will be good to wait for price to confirm this forecast by breaking just as said above. We will post more quick updates at our Telegram Channel.

What if the report weakens the Euro and price breaks below 1.1178?. There may be further corrective move downside and we will be on the sideline and watch.

Meanwhile if Euro weakens, we can take a cue from Eurgbp.

The Weakness of Euro could weaken Eurgbp

 A BREAKOUT IN EURGBP?

 
We have this strong bearish bias on Eurgbp until price breaks above 0.8725. The recent rally is taken as a double zigzag correction and may be the end of wave II).

The weakness of the Euro may cause price to break out of the wave II) supply trendline.

If there is a good breakout, we may wait for a pullback while price continues downward to break below 0.83.

Our Choice

We will buy Eurusd if Euro strengthens OR Sell Eurgbp if Euro weakens at the levels mentioned.

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Oil Producers' Meeting in Algiers; of what effect to CAD?

Oil Producers Meeting in Algiers

One of the fundamental highlights of the week is the informal meeting that will be held today by oil producers (OPEC and Non-OPEC members) in Algiers today.

Though the meeting is an informal one, the outcome will definitely have a short term effect on Oil prices and of course, CAD. The prices of oil have immediate effect on the CAD.

During the meeting, there will be private talks and rumours which will have significant effect on oil prices.

All eyes will be on Iran and Saudi Arabia who have been raising production. The stance of these two oil giants will be very important.

According to reports, if one of these giants cut, the other may follow; so the agreement between these two will be one of the major highlights.

Formal meetings will be be held by OPEC if an agreement is reached and this will increase the Oil price in the short term. A disagreement will mean that price will spike southward in the short term as markets spikes based on rumours.

What effect would this have on CAD and how do we take advantage of an sudden change in price that such meeting brings?

CADJPY

 We have been following this currency pair for a while now and yesterday we expected a rally to 78.5
but Poloz's negative statement about the CAD brought price down.

According to the chart above, there was a 5-wave decline after the end of a larger corrective move. A correction to 78.5 will be seen if the Oil producers have a positive meeting in Algiers. A break above 76.74 will confirm the short term bullish move of this pair.

At every point in time, we must always prepare for eventualities and what technical tool helps us more than the Elliott wave theory?

We have an alternative view. If the talk in Algiers ends up negative,CAD will fall in the short term.
This means that the sub-wave (v) which was presumed to end at 75.32 may extend below

eo

A  break below 75.42 could mean that price will fall further to around 73.4 as the little push (ii in blue) may just be a mere retracement to Poloz's southward spike.

What does this mean for us if I can recommend?

Recommendation:

*Buy Cadjpy at 76.75, minimum target at 78.5 and Stop loss at 75.4

*Sell Cadjpy at 75.4, minimum target at 73.4 Stop loss (where wave(ii) in blue ends)

Note: These parameters can change as price moves and we can adjust them based on position of price before the awaited moves.

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*Disclaimer: This is not a call to trade. Traders take this at their own risk. We will not be responsible for any loss suffered or profit gained. Apply due dilligence.

USDCAD

In our last updates , we have two scenarios for Usdcad : bullish and bearish. The target for reversal at the top was at 1.33 which price didn't hit before a sharp downside move.

We have two outlook based on what the outcome of the meeting is.

If the outcome for the meeting is good for CAD, we might see a sharp corrective move downside though there are high volatile news coming for USD today as well so we will see price in high speed movement. I will look forward for a bullish position if price 'correctively' dips to 1.3065.

Incase of a rally the chart below shows that a move to 1.3432 is likely if price breaks above 1.3280

 Usdcad may be the most volatile today together with the Eurusd.

Join our TELEGRAM CHANNEL to get quick updates.

Gold: We have a bearish bias...UNTIL!

From the long term view, it looks like Gold is in a 'no man's land'. Though the trend is bullish and price may continue the upside move at the end of the side-way movement but price may break below the congestion level and start a real correction- a deep one.

There is a way Elliott wave theory can put the current price action/activity to fit the general market structure.

Let's see if we can use it here to extract some vital information

 The chart above shows that from 1043.3 to 1375.05, price engaged in an impulsive bullish drive which broke out of a longer term diagonal.

After such a drive- 5-wave-, price should, according to Elliott wave theory, correct in a 3-wave drive in the opposite direction.

From 1305, price has gone in a sideway movement instead of a sharp corrective move.

Of course, if price breaks above the congestion and eventually, 1305, the bullish party will have to continue.

Conversely, if the congestion is broken downside, a deep lying correction will be confirmed.

I am expecting the later of these two scenarios- the bearish corrective move. I will be looking for opportunity southward.

Let me give you the following to chew and digest.

 From the chart above, there is a forecast for a zigzag correction with a triangle (b) leg. If this will hold, price will be expected to go southward in a 5-wave drive or sharp zigzag move (to form a double zigzag altogether) to 1240.


In another count below-

There is still the possibility of a Zigzag correction with a flat (b) and an expected zigzag or impulsive (c).

1280 and 1240 are good levels price will be expected to get to if price breaks downwards

Any successful bullish drive that breaks above the triangle (b) in the first corrective scenario may hamper the bears.

In the next update, I will share with you, the intra-day analysis so we can get a clearer picture and a good entry.

You can join my 'fast-channel' where I make all-round-the-clock analytical updates on major pairs, Gold, Crude Oil , S$P 500 and Dollar Index.

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Nzdusd: Bearish move to continue below 0.733?

In the last update on Nzdusd, we pointed to the break out of the 'double-zigzag'wave (ii).

Price dipped to 0.7219 wave i of (ii) after which a rally follow to 0.7330. Considering that price is now at a strong resistance, it will require a strong momentum to continue the bullish move above 0.7330.

We still put our money in the bears in as much price is still contained below 0.7366.

We expect price to continue the bearish move to at least 0.7082 after breaking 0.7219 barrier.

The reward downside makes some sense, right?

Usdcad after Poloz's statement.

Will take 3 to 5 years for CAD economy to recover from lower oil prices

The words above were those of the Bank of Canada Governor- Poloz

Seems the Governor has lost a bit of confidence which will definitely further worsen the CAD performance.

This supports our general bullish outlook and we expect Usdcad to soar higher unless the price of Crude oil perform much better.

Based on our recent updates, we were expecting a bearish reversal at 1.32-1.325, price soared to 1.327 and fell sharply.

We expected the sharp intra-day decline to continue to 1.31 but with this statement, we will see a rally before the dip would continue.

If price , after the current rally, dips to around 1.31, it will be fine to look for good bullish opportunity to join the bullish party.

And in case we do not see the dip, there is an alternative view in the chart below.

We may have a prolonged impulse wave upside to 1.33 price level before any dip would be seen.

CadJpy: A Rally to 78.5?

At the beginning of last week, we expected a rally after identifying a 5-wave down. The rally did come but short-lived due to economic releases from Japan and the effect of Crude Oil on Cad.

It looks like we could have the rally now and we want to bank on this one.

The rally is expected to b a sharp corrective move. Immediate move to 77.45 and later to 78.5 is likely.

This pair has well the stretched downside, so the rally could even advance further the 78.5. We will see how price respond to the sudden bullish bar on the 1 hr chart.

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Usdcad at 1.32. What next?

In the last update, we expected Usdcad to rally further to 1.32 price resistance region in order to complete an impulse wave upside.
Seems price may be correcting downside soon.

If price, from the present position dips below 1.3185, that could be an early indication that price could fall to 1.31 or maybe lower.

Cable Rally is Imminent

The cable has been trading in a flat channel, trying to absorb the effect of the BREXIT referendum
Looks like price will embark on a new journey upside to complete what might look like the last leg of the correction.

The first indication of this expected bullish move is an impulse wave down. One would have expected a corrective move instead since sideway corrections are made of corrective structures.

With this impulse wave, the expected rally upside may end around 1.3230 before a new move downside.

A break above 1.2995 should encourage at least a sharp corrective move upside.

Targets could be set at 1.3120 and 1.3230.

Audusd: Can turn all bearish if 0.76 gives way

The wave (ii) was really very sharp as it was also empowered by the FOMC statement which meant that price broke above 61.8% retracement.

There seems to be another chance that for price to resume downside at 78.6% retracement.

A break below 0.76 could give a clearer picture that the downside would happen but if price breaks above 0.7675, it could squander any thought of a bearish continuation

UsdJpy: A possible diagonal could mean the end of the Bears.

Our last forecast for UsdJpy- a triangle pattern for price to resume upward- was not completed as price dipped further after the BOJ and FOMC statements.

We can still count on the fact that price will soon be exhausted downside for a large bullish turn.

With the chart above, price may dip further to complete an ending diagonal at 98.85-99.50 which will be the last leg of a longer term correction.

Usdcad may be bearish at 1.32-1.325

At the beginning of last week, we highlighted our expectation of a bearish dip before price resumes upward.
Price rallied further and was forming what we thought to be an expanded triangle. An expended triangle would mean that the bullish move would be expected to continue without a deep dip.

Then came the FOMC meeting and price dipped to invalidate the expanded triangle.

Price dipped fast to complete what we had seen to be the second wave.

We were not surprised as price rallied afterward in preparation for even a stronger bullish move wave 111.

With the chart above , it seems the sub wave (i) of the 3rd wave may be completed at 1.32-1.325 price resistance level. If price is contained below this level, there may be a sugnificant sharp corrective move- wave (ii) downside.

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Nzdusd: Channel Break-Out

We waited for a correction upside at the beginning of the week after a good dip in the last two weeks.
Price seems to have completed the correction at 50% Fibo retracement.

Though, below our forecast reversal level, price completed a double zigzag correction in form of a channel.

The break below the channel also shows that the bearish move might continue to 0.715 and 0.7.

Audusd: The Return of The Bears?

Aussie was one of the 9 currency pairs on our Watchlist for the week and we were expecting the correction upside to continue to 0.76 price level.

I actually was expecting price going higher to 0.762.

Price is now showing a sign that the correction upside is over and we may see it resuming the bearish trend which started almost two weeks ago.

We can see a double zigzag corrective pattern as shown in the chart above.

A break below the 'red' rising trendline could trigger a a new bearish journey which could be a much longer one that the previous.

This would be a 'mouth-watering' trade with a big R/R if price moves as expected after the break-down.

This could be one of the reasons why we decide to trade using Elliott wave theory (think of a wave iii in the making)

Forecast: Expanding Triangle In Usdcad?

We expected a good dip in Usdcad according to our forecast at the beginning of the week.
Price didn't move just as we had wanted (our pattern was not completed) though there looked like a break downside. So we were on the sideline, probably waiting for where to take a bullish opportunity.

Seems price is showing signs of a sideway movement in the form of an expanding triangle.

Expanding triangles often happen at the 4th wave of an impulse wave or b-wave (second leg) of a 3-wave correction.

Price may dip further to 1.3129 and we can watch the response of price to that level.
If price is supported at that level, there maybe even a stronger bullish drive than the one we had last week.

Eurgbp: Bearish Continuation?

Price has completed a good pattern here as we expected based on our previous forecast.

The rally may soon be over for the bears to resume.

A breakout downside could be the biginning of a 5-wave impulse move downside and we may see the last low taken out.

CadJpy: Watch out for a rally

At the beginning of this week, we looked at 9 emerging patterns across 9 currency pairs.
I pointed to the fact that patience is needed as we wait for price to validate our forecast.

CadJpy is one of the 9 pairs and it seems price has completed the diagonal mouth as was forecast in the article. You can read HERE to refresh the idea in your memory.

A breakout upside could result in good bullish move to 78.75 - 79 price region.

Let's see how price plays this out.

WATCHLIST: 19th - 23rd September 2016

There is more to successful trading than buying and selling.

Successful trading requires a lot of patience, hardwork, discipline, persistence and very important; READINESS which is preceded by PREPARATION.

PREPARATION is an essential ingredient that is needed in any endeavor. The best prepared mind wins. The same applies to trading.

Lack of preparation leads to FAILURE.

In trading, preparation should be done before the markets open for the new trading week. An army gets itself prepared before the war not during the war.



There are more than 30 currency pairs (minor and major) , excluding the exotic pairs, that can be traded in the FOREX market.

Out of these 30, there are like 7 or 8 major. Following only the majors will result in having few trades especially for a swing or position trader; though trading ONLY the majors will encourage FOCUS.

Looking for more trades will require that a trader involves in more pairs; there are more than 30 after all. But the question is : how does a trader manage more than 30 pairs without losing focus and engaging in over-trading?

It's down to one thing: preparing before the market opens for the new trading week by having a WATCH LIST.

After doing much analysis, in our own case here- Elliott wave analysis; one can see vividly which of the pairs is forming a well-recognizable wave pattern in the nearest term such that a trading opportunity can emerge in the course of the week.

At the end of this exercise, we can narrow our thoughts to these pairs which could be 10 or less or slightly more.

We can then fill our work space with these pairs and watch through out the week; making forecasts, projections and waiting for price to validate or invalidate and finally waiting for all parameters to be met before pulling the trigger.

This will make our work to be much easier, exciting and relaxing. No pressure, no sentimental bias- we just wait wait for price t be in tune, measure our risk and then pull the trigger. Trading should be that simple.

I have 9 currency pairs in my WATCH LIST for the new trading week: 19th-23rd September 2016. I decide to share with you.

1. AUDCAD

I have a very strong bearish bias for this pair. The bearish correction which started Mid-August may have not completed yet. A 5-wave decline is expected. I will consider a short trade if price breaks below the rising trendline supporting sub-wave ii. This move could be invalidated if price rallies above wave (b).


2. AUDUSD

After the much awaited decline started about 2 weeks ago, price may continue going downside in the coming months. I want to see a corrective rally (wave ii) to 0.76 price region before I join the bears once more for a move that could even be greater than the current bearish move. Of course, price may continue downside without a rally to the aforementioned region but I still expect a deep correction upside.

3. CADJPY

If you are consistent follower of this blog, you'd see that price followed the second scenario as mentioned in this post. A 5-wave. 

    A 5-wave decline is almost complete. We may see a bullish reversal this week. It will be a corrective move ,wave ii. I usually trade wave ii (if wave i is large enough and completes a very good pattern) because they are often sharp deep counter move (61.8% of wave i) and are not often complex unlike wave iv.

If the diagonal mouth completes and price breaks upside, I will consider a bullish trade though the general bias is bearish.


4.  EURAUD

This is a typical example of what I mentioned above that wave 2 are often sharp moves. After the rally that broke above 1.4710 which I notified us about, read here , there was a clear indication that a real dip would happen as wave ii are very sharp moves. This bearish correction may not be over yet. I will look forward to price falling deeper to 1.47/48 region before considering a bullish opportunity. I still maintain a bullish bias after the correction is over.


5. EURGBP

In an earlier post we forecast a 5-wave dip and discussed about an imminent correction upside in a later video analysis. Price is currently correcting the dip (a very sharp move). Price is now at a turning point with a presumed diagonal. If the rally steps down and the diagonal mouth is well formed. We may see stronger dip. Price is expected to be contained below 0.86. Any strong rally above this level could abort the bearish expectation.


6. EURNZD

This move is similar to the Euraud move. Price may dip further to 1.51-52 region before the preceding rally continues.

7. NZDUSD

Like Audusd, the correction may go further upside in a double zigzag formation, though the X wave is fast. A dip below 0.72 will invalidate this view and the bearish decline will continue. To consider a short opportunity at this juncture, I will wait for price to rally to the resistance level (0.73-0.74). Many other things can happen but as they happen, we can adjust our analysis and forecast in order to take good position that encourage good R/R.



8. USDCAD

In a Mid-week forecast, I alerted us of a complete triangle pattern and we joined the rally and what a good rally it was!

Now, do we see a decline?. Yes, it's imminent. A 5-wave with a diagonal mouth is a no-brainer to me.
If the diagonal completes as forecast and breaks below as indicated, we may see price declining back to the triangle.

And Finally......

8. UsdJpy.

I thought the rally after the last bearish move would be a 5-wave kind but with a triangle forming, we may see an ABC correction upside before the larger degree bearish move continues.

We are interested in the (c) wave to 106 price level. If the triangle is complete as shown in the chart, we will have a good reason to consider a long trade to 106.25.


All these are forecasts that price has to validate or invalidate. Patience and strict discipline is needed. There is no guarantee that price will move this may. Price can move in many other ways.
It's good to have an expectation for price move using well-tested tools like Elliott wave theory.
Creating analytical watch list like this will only help us take relaxed and well planned decisions.

Fundamental Activities To Watch out for

Tuesday: Monetary Policy Meeting in Australia (AUD)

Wednesday: 1. Monetary Policy Statement in Japan and Bank of Japan press conference (JPY)
                    2. FOMC statements and Funds rate in the U.S (USD)
                    3. Rate statement in New Zealand (NZD)

Thursday: 1. Unemployment Claims in U.S (USD)
                2. European Central Bank President Draghi speech (EUR)

Friday: Core CPI and Retail Sales in Canada (CAD)

All these activities will surely affect our forecast. They will probably (actually they often) drive price to our positions and we have to wait and be patient.

I will be discussing these watch list in a webinar on Monday. I invite you to join me in the analysis, forecast, question and answer webinar. It's going to be interesting and educating.


INVITATION TO WEBINAR

https://global.gotomeeting.com/join/111588125

Date: Monday, 19th September, 2016
Time: 9:00 am Gmt or 10:00 a.m Central African Time

Use your microphone and speakers (VoIP) - a headset is recommended.  Or, call in using your telephone.

Dial +1 (872) 240-3311
Access Code: 111-588-125
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