Audnzd: Are the bulls ready to resume?

From the weekly chart above, Elliott wave theory enabled us to have a good technical understanding of what price has been doing since 2011. A 5-wave decline is usually followed by a 3-wave rally (classic elliott wave theory).

We identified the wave (b) of the prospective correction in an article published on 10th February, (click to read again). It was a triangle pattern and price rallied well to our targets.

Price has been in a dip from 1.1330 since March and we wonder if it will continue or price will rally.

The long term correction upside may not be over yet and we are just looking for a good reason to back up our reasoning.

 


The chart above showed that the recent dip could be the wave 2 of an expected motive wave C .and price could resume higher in what could be another round of rally.

The wave (c) is also an ending diagonal- a terminating pattern. Seems we have good proofs, Elliott wave theory wise, to believe that a rally is imminent.

The chart below shows the terminating end of the diagonal more clearly.

 



There could be a very good opportunity for the bulls to resume possession and drive price as high 1.0929 or above.

For this diagonal to hold, price will be expected to be held above 1.06417, a break below could hamper the diagonal pattern.

A proper break above 1.0757 should be good enough to validate the pattern.

I hope this analysis helps somebody. Please drop you comments and help share this post.

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Gbpusd: The Short Term Forecast and Expectation.

The primary trend of the Cable (Gbpusd) is still bearish, W-3 of the primary trend is still in motion.

Throughout April, the Cable rallied in a 4th intermediate wave ( a zigzag pattern) which we forecast to end at 1.4768 before a probable bearish resurgence.

The 4th intermediate wave is the sub-wave 4 of W-3 of the primary wave.

A bearish motive is usually seen after this kind of scenario and so we expect more move downside ( in what could last till June/July) especially as the dip from 1.4768 is a good motive wave.

 

If the intra day price action moves as shown above (would mean the completion of a pattern) , a break above 1.4420 should end the intra day bearish motive wave ( with a diagonal mouth) from 1.4768, especially if price is held above 1.4360.

A correction to 1.4529 or 1.4615 is probable and imminent.

Read the last forecast here.
Read the long term forecast here.

Gbpusd: The Imminent Return Of The Bears?

In an analysis posted on 5th April where we expected the cable to rally to 1.4669 after a triangle pattern.
Read the analysis here 

We used the chart below in the analysis.



The analysis was perfect as price moved exactly as expected after completing the triangle, then embarked on an impulsive rally which started at 1.40 price level.

Price is presently in the region o a 100% price projection of wave (a) (1.3832-1.4445) from the base o the triangle, wave (b).

A 5-wave impulse rally is at the brink of completion and price could rally further to 1.4768 before the bearish trend resumes.

We expect price to be contained below 1.4768 and the bearish trend to resume