A Very Weak Economic Recovery

A Very Weak Economic Recovery

By Elliott Wave International

Editor's note: The following article is excerpted from Elliott Wave International's new free report, "U.S. Economy Still on Life Support." For years, the government has manipulated its unemployment statistics to line up with its claim that the economy has recovered strongly. But that's not ALL the government is hiding from you. From foodstuffs, to crude oil prices, to GDP, the numbers and analysis reported by the government and mainstream financial press are misleading at best, downright falsehoods at worst. Get the hidden truth -- click here to read the full two-part report now >>
For years, the government has been manipulating its unemployment statistics to line up with its claim that the economy has recovered strongly.
Jim Clifton of Gallup finally couldn't stand it anymore and wrote a terrific op-ed on the subject. Here is the meat of it:

If you, a family member or anyone is unemployed and has subsequently given up on finding a job--if you are so hopelessly out of work that you've stopped looking over the past four weeks--the Department of Labor doesn't count you as unemployed. That's right. While you are as unemployed as one can possibly be, and tragically may never find work again, you are not counted in the figure we see relentlessly in the news--currently 5.6%. Right now, as many as 30 million Americans are either out of work or severely underemployed. Trust me, the vast majority of them aren't throwing parties to toast "falling" unemployment.
There's another reason why the official rate is misleading. Say you're an out-of-work engineer or healthcare worker or construction worker or retail manager: If you perform a minimum of one hour of work in a week and are paid at least $20--maybe someone pays you to mow their lawn--you're not officially counted as unemployed in the much-reported 5.6%. Few Americans know this.
Yet another figure of importance that doesn't get much press: those working part time but wanting full-time work. If you have a degree in chemistry or math and are working 10 hours part time because it is all you can find--in other words, you are severely underemployed--the government doesn't count you in the 5.6%. Few Americans know this.
There's no other way to say this. The official unemployment rate, which cruelly overlooks the suffering of the long-term and often permanently unemployed as well as the depressingly underemployed, amounts to a Big Lie.
--Jim Clifton, Gallup.com

The following chart depicts the substantial decline in employment since 2000.

Notice that the recovery in jobs during the stock market rally of 2003-2007 was only about 1/3 of the decline from 2000-2003. The recovery during the even longer and bigger rally of 2009-2014 has been about 40% of its preceding decline. In both cases, the recoveries have been weaker than the declines, despite new highs in the major stock averages both times.
Editor's note: This article is excerpted from Elliott Wave International's new free report, "U.S. Economy Still on Life Support." For years, the government has manipulated its unemployment statistics to line up with its claim that the economy has recovered strongly. But that's not ALL the government is hiding from you. From foodstuffs, to crude oil prices, to GDP, the numbers and analysis reported by the government and mainstream financial press are misleading at best, downright falsehoods at worst. Get the hidden truth -- click here to read the full two-part report now >>

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Eurusd: Completion Of Bearish Cycle?

This market has for long crashed down. I am one of the people waiting for a turn. With the completion of the long term bearish correction, price is expected to move up. 

A trigger is needed and it seems we have now.

 

From the weekly chart I have below shows the wave analysis from the beginning of this millenium 2000till date, during which we have a five wave impulsive move followed by a zigzag corrective patter. 

 

The B leg of of this zigzag is a triangle formation.

 Triangles are known to usually precede the end of a run. Price broke out massively in a trendy impulsive move ( this can be seen clearly on the daily chart). 

 

The C leg of the zigzag completes a 100% extension of A leg from B leg which is a very typical fibonacci relationship in zigzag corrections.

 

 

 

 Price is expected to turn from here to 1.1800 resistance, 1.2600-1.3000 ( breakpoint retest of the triangle) and if the long term bullish trend resumes, price go higher and higher.

Always check here for updates of the move and how I intend dealing with price actions along the way.

CadYen: A new opportunity?

There is an opportunity surfacing here to trade the fifth wave in the opposite direction after a confirmed long term zigzag correction.

From the weekly chart, a successful zigzag correction was formed at 106.5 which is a resistive zone. 

 

Without surprise, price reacted immediately downward from this level. 

By projection, if price breaks the supportive trendline, we could see price at 49 ,which is the 61.8% projection of wave A from B to ride to C, in the very long run.

Zooming down to the 4hr chart, the movement from 106.5 looks impulsive after completing 3 waves with the fourth wave, a diagonal triangle, expected to complete if price does not go back to the diagonal region.

 

 In as much price is held below 96.8, there is a high probability that price will fall especially if it turns back from to break 94.4 downward. the region 94.4 - 96.8 are very important and a sell could be taken from these areas if price shows a sign of reversal. 

 

If these level are held and price dips further, we could see price at 88 (61.8% extension of wave1-3 from wave 4) and its neighborhood.

If price breaks above 96.8, an alternate wave count will be required to ascertain the next destination of this market

RED ALERT: Usdcad Bears are Knocking.

I did an analysis on 13th February on Usdcad after discovering a successful flat formation and a reasonable bearish candlestick formation.You can read the analysis again

 

Usdcad went into some intraday triangle consolidation and I got myself following it hitherto.

 

 The triangle consolidation was breaking upside in an intra day motive diagonal move with 1.2800 acting as a resistive barrier. 

 

With another resistance at 1.3025 up for grasp and the FOMC announcement coming soon. It looked like a battle between these resistive levels...A resistive zone came to mind ( 1.2800-1.3205) especially when noting that 127% and 138.2% extension of wave1-3 from 4 of the C leg of the flat also fall within this zone. 

 

With price forming a flat corrective pattern (with C let coming as a clear impulsive move) at 50% retracement of the bearish move between Jan 2002 and Nov 2007, a reversal trigger is needed whether technically or fundamentally.

 

With the FOMC at the corner and 1.2800 acting very strong and an expected flat correction for a fresh bearish move, I had to exit my buy to 1.3205 and watch how price react to the announcement before knowing the next destination

The FOMC was negative and price move sharply out of the intra day ending diagonals to start a move downward. 

 

With all indications almost satisfied for a bearish move, Usdcad is expected to be on a bearish journey especially if this week candle is an engulfing one.

Follow and bookmark this blog to follow the journey and take quality trades along.

Usdcad: What Is The State?

In the last update on Usdcad, I mentioned how price could react to the break of the triangle corrective formation. 

How I expected it to retrace to the neck line before continuing the journey. 

 

I stated how price could react to the 1.2800 resistive barrier and unsurprisingly, price is consolidating around the region after breaking out of the triangle.

One of the properties of a triangle corrective pattern is that it usually preceeds the end of a trend or sub-trend. Triangles are usually wave 4 of a motive/impulsive move or wave B of a correction.

The move out of the triangle region should expectedly be an impulsive move or an ending diagonal which should break 1.2800 and be about 100% extension of the largest width of the triangle ( this is projected to reach 1.3025.

 

 

 

Presently, price is forming  more likely a 'would be' ending diagonal than a regular impulsive move. Our confidence of having diagonal or impulsive move would be strengthened if price is contained in the upward channel

Price is expected to move up after completing what should be an intraday side way move.

If price breaks below the channel support line, we would see what price is saying and re-analyse if the momentum is not out of our reach.

Usdcad Ready For Bullish Breakout?

In my last post on Usdcad, I mentioned a triangle correction. If this correction holds and break upside, I will look forward to take a buy despite my overall bearish bias.

Presently, by the intraday chart, price has completed the fifth leg of the triangle and it's now  going up.

 

This intra day upward move looks impulsive ( especially when viewed on the 15min chart) 

 

According to the wave pattern on 1hr, this first impulsive move should break out of the triangle if it is anything serious. 

 

The following correction should retrace to the break point of the triangle and a buy trade can be taken if price doesn't fall back to the triangle massively.

 

 

 

If price behaves this way, there is a high propensity of price getting to 1.2900 which a resistance level. 1.2800 is a closer resistance and we must watch how price reacts to it.

 

If price behaves otherwise and fall back to the triangle, more analysis will be needed as a very complex correction is at stake and care should be taken.

 

As price gives more data, we can see what it's next movement could be.

 

You can scroll down to read some of the recent analysis I did on Usdcad for better understanding

I will be here to update you.

How Farther Will The Cable Dip?

For more about 3 weeks, I have maintained a strong bearish stand on Gbpusd. It has been a very rewarding and relaxing journey. From -70pips to 100pips to 250 pips and yet sitting down and watching how my final target will be hit at 1.4980 to round up a truly rewarding trade of 400pips.

 

If you are a visitor of this blog, you can read my first analysis here and the second here .

 

Now that the power of the ending diagonal has been confirmed and price moved down in a typical impulsive move, minor correction should be expected especially when a strong support is close.

 

My recent intra day elliot wave count shows that price has moved and making the second minor retracement (wave 4).

 

I expect price to move down from there to test the support zone indicated at 1.4950-1.4990.

 

If price doesn't penetrate the support in high momentum, price will consolidate or retrace.

 

Price is the key and the king. 

 

I will update you here