Usdcad: What Is The State?

In the last update on Usdcad, I mentioned how price could react to the break of the triangle corrective formation. 

How I expected it to retrace to the neck line before continuing the journey. 

 

I stated how price could react to the 1.2800 resistive barrier and unsurprisingly, price is consolidating around the region after breaking out of the triangle.

One of the properties of a triangle corrective pattern is that it usually preceeds the end of a trend or sub-trend. Triangles are usually wave 4 of a motive/impulsive move or wave B of a correction.

The move out of the triangle region should expectedly be an impulsive move or an ending diagonal which should break 1.2800 and be about 100% extension of the largest width of the triangle ( this is projected to reach 1.3025.

 

 

 

Presently, price is forming  more likely a 'would be' ending diagonal than a regular impulsive move. Our confidence of having diagonal or impulsive move would be strengthened if price is contained in the upward channel

Price is expected to move up after completing what should be an intraday side way move.

If price breaks below the channel support line, we would see what price is saying and re-analyse if the momentum is not out of our reach.