BRING ON THE NFP

I was going out this morning expecting to come back and see signals for Eurnzd sell. None of my entry strategy rules was satisfied.

I flicked through other pairs when I saw a nice opportunity to ride Usdcad. I bought more lots than I usually do because of the small volatility of this pair

It paid out well as my first TP was hit and the second was about to

While I expect this pair to rise higher, there are two barriers - 0.09100 and the NFP.With profit locked and more to come before Friday...I can say '' BRING ON THE NFP''

EurNzd Update

If you have been following this blog closely, you would have noticed that this pair has not yet reached the minimum projection level for wave 5 mentioned on 29th April ( read here) .

The wave 5 move started strongly expectedly didn't go straight to hit 1.56s and below, which are the projected levels.

Presently, we have an abc 61.8% gartley zig-zag correction pattern resting on a strong resistance and with D1 formed a pin and a doji candles at this level, it's not poor thinking that Eurnzd might soon fall and 1.55s are the targets.
 An aggressive trader might want to sell from here while a conservative one would wait for a break of 1.5935 support formed by the up trendline on 4H.
 I will wait for my entry parameters before activating a sell and take profits at 1.5780 and 1.5550.

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My Result for the month of May

Total number of trades: 9
Won trades: 5
Half winner: 1
Lost trades:2
Breakeven: 1

Results in pips:

Won trades:
Gpbaud: +350pips
Audnzd: +150 pips
Eurnzd: +250 pips
Euraud: +200pips
Gbpusd: +120 pips
Total pips: +1070

Lost trades:
Audnzd: -25pips
Usdchf: -75pips
Gbpaud: -1pip ( break even)
Total pips lost: -101pips

Net pips: +960pips

Running trade: UsdJpy closed half trade with 45pips, second part running at breakeven

I hope next month will be better than this

AudNzd breakdown on short time frame

I have been watching this pair for some time now and never took any action bacause I was not sure of the pattern it was about to form.

After riding high on this pair from my analysis on 5th May (read here), I predicted a downward move (read here) and labelled 1.0641 as my projected magnetic zone to search for buying signal. 

Price has been moving downward since then in complex wave patterns but my level has not been reached.

I believe this level could still be reached and I am watching closely. Meanwhile I saw a good market structure to profit on H1.

The recent bearish retracement is getting to be a deep one and I have marked 1.6090 and its neighborhood for a strong magnetic zone to search for buy signal
Recently on H1, we have seen the successful formation wave 1,2and 3. Wave 4 about to complete after forming what looks like complex reversal pattern; and with a bearish gartley.
I intend selling this pair to ride to 1.6090 if the the rising channel breaks downward.

UsdJpy Bearish Movement Continuation

I have gotten my hands really dirty watching this pair since yesterday. I wanted to wait till the end of today before posting. A friend of mine alerted me on facebook and I thought I have to put the analysis together for those who care for it. Now let's go

I benefited from the long bearish trend which started in April picking 220pips( though I didn't share here).                                                                                       The  bulls take over for a minor retracement and at a point I sold ( check the analysis here) and was stopped out at break even. Shortly afterwards, it dived down and my eye balls were rolling for missing a party i was suppose to be part of . This is Forex!

Presently,on the H4, we have confluence of events between 101.87 and 102.05 which is the level that should end the second correction of the downtrend that started in April. At this same level, we have a retest of the triangle and a channel formed by wave 2 and the efforts of the market to drive down to wave 3.

Market hasn't gotten to the minimum projection for wave 3 so the recent up-move could be a mere correction. A strong move downward is expected to break 101.10 and 100.75.

On the H1,we saw the end of wave 5 of the downward move that started on 13th may which is being corrected by an ABC-61.8% (at the reversal zone mentioned) zig-zag wave correction. Coupled with this is the potential formation of a deep crab harmonic pattern which is expected at the reversal zone mentioned.
The reversal zone mentioned should be a very strong magnetic zone for price indicating the continuation of the trend. Market is expected to react at this zone and i will watch out for reversal signal with my special entry strategy

On the other way, if price breaks the zone with a high momentum, then something else is happening and all this long analysis could be rendered invalid.

The analytical charts (H4 and H1) show the levels...Check it out

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Now EurAud is saying something!

This pair, in the recent months, has been moving southward with beautiful wavy patterns. I don't think it is ready to stop doing that despite the recent upward push.

Going by my wave count, wave 4 has completed and a move to the region of 1.4560 suggests that wave 5 is ruling. With the recent up-push, it appeared that wave 5 could be through. But a proper look suggests that wave 5 has not reached its minimum projection level.

Presently, we see this pair resting on a very strong resistance ( with the convergence of 4 parameters) after an ABC-61.8% harmonic reversal pattern successfully formed ( at least potentially) on H4. This suggest that wave 5 has not completed yet and a strong move is now expected downward to 1.4560 and 1.4140 ( for the stretched term).

I am expecting a candlestick bearish pattern on H4 and some other parameters to align  and then sell this pair expecting large move.

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The Bears may not be done with GbpAud yet.

On 4th May, I forecast a bearish move of this pair and the move was just right. I hit my secong target with 350pips and the last part of my trade was stopped at +235pips. Not a bad result at all.

The downward move was quick and massive, broken the first trendline (in magenta colour). 

At the moment of typing this information, price retraced fast to retest this trendline and a sumptuous pin was formed on 4H and 1H with a Gartley ABC correction of the last bearish move.

I will sell from here and hope I can take my full target at 1.7500 but I will take profits along the way and ride with the trend if market decides to move this way.

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UsdChf not ready to break the channel

I can't remember the last time I traded this pair but I won't overlook the set-up it's forming at the moment.

This pair has been in a bearish channel since october 2013 and it's not broken yet.

Presently, after a flat correction pattern formed, we could see this pair continuing the bearish trend and probably break out of it.

Looking at the daily chart closely, a pin bar reversal candlestick bearish pattern has just been formed at a very critical level. Markets rarely ignore this kind of set-up. I will look to ride this pair downward. I hope I can enjoy it

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UPDATE ON AUDNZD

Seriously,this pair is looking so good to me with elliot waves and swing patterns forming into place. After having a ride up with beautiful pips, I predicted a dip on 8th May, you can read here. 

Though I didn't trade this dip and those that traded should be enjoying their trades now if their stop loss was not too close. They still have the opportunity to ride to 1.074 or thereabout for minimum of 80pips (that isn't bad at all).

But I see a new buy interest at the level 1.076 -1.073 and a great bull ride should continue from there. This zone is very magnetic with a potential deep ABC correction/bat pattern.

I will watch out for price action at this level and anticipate a bullish set up with my entry strategy. You can also watch out for this level.

Get the feel with the analytical chart below

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GbpUsd Bullish set-up

After a long bullish move from March, this pair is forming a dip. This could be the second bearish retracement ( i.e wave 4) of this bullish trend.

This bearish dip looks exhausted and it's just a matter of time that the bullish move continues.

With reversal zone, formed by the confluence of various fibonacci extension and retracement drawn from key levels, at 1.6560-1.6700; we could be in for the end of wave 4 ( which shouln't dip into the wave 1 region below 1.6700) and the resumption of wave 5 which should close above the top of wave 3.

I will watch for bull signal at this zone for a long trend to the upside and if this should happen..woow! that will be a party of pips.

If a reversal signal is not formed at this level and price breaks through with a high momentum, this scenerio will be invalid and I will look at somewhere else

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AudNzd renewed Interest

Woow!..What a wonderful experience I had with this pair over tha last two weeks. A whooping 300pips in less than two weeks is not bad, Is it?.

I highlighted a particular zone for reversal on Monday and predicted two possible scenerios (read here) and price reversed just right there to fulfil the second scenerio. The bias now ( at the moment,based on the present data) is bullish.

After that upward move, price appears to have formed a bearish correction pattern which could end between (1.0760 and 1.0730) after which the bull continues its movement.

If the afformentioned level is broken on a high momentum, the bears could resume and second scenerio will be violated and invalid. At the moment, the 2nd scenerio is still in control until price movement proves otherwise.

If you are a short term/intraday trader, you might look at selling to the zone but medium-term guys could wait for a renewed buy signal at the level (well if the market agrees with us)

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AudNzd Forecast and Analysis

I cashed out 150pips from the current bearish move of this pair ( It was a fast trade that I enjoyed; I didn't put the analysis here. It was a fast trade that I shared with few of my friends). This pair looks promising to trade because of the swings and high magnetic zone it's formed.

While I will admit that the overall trend, at least based on the present data, is bearish; I still believe that this market could swing up. I have two scenarios

Ist Possible Scenerio:

The recent ABC correction of the 5-wave bullish move is weakening and a bullish run could emerge from 1.0610 to 1.0650 which is a very strong support level from trendline analysis and fibonacci harmonic point of view.

If this level will hold, we could see market fly really high above 1.0900 provided the recent bearish move is a correction and that will be a whole lot of pips in the bag

2nd Possible Scenerio:

The recent bearish move could be a call for the bearish trend to continue and expected bullish move at 1.0610-1.0650 zone could just be a correction ( Wave 4) which could end at 1.0750 and its neighbourhood and surge the bearish run further and if the old wave 1 is broken down....BOOM, the bearish trend continues and AudNzd deepens

I will watch for price action at these levels especially the zone discussed

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GbpAud bearish signal.

I predicted an upward move of this pair on 21st April before I concluded on a region ( read it here) where I would consider selling.

This level has been reached bearly two weeks after and I have discovered a sell signal to ride this pair to 1.7490 at the minimum.

I will be trading the end of wave 4 ( head and shoulder neckline retest) and the beginning of wave 5 which I expect to break the rising trendline.

If the rising trendline holds this pair, the bullish move could continue.

As we anticipate and perhaps trade the prospective bearish movement, we should keep an eye on the rising trendline and observe how price react to it.

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EurNzd bearish move forecast

This pair has been moving downward with style from January with up swings in between.

It looks, presently,like price could be rejected at 1.62s after a strong resistance was formed there.

The expected bearish move form this level could drive the market to 1.56s

Get my feel from the chart below

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Gbpchf Analysis for the last week of April

Wow!...What more can I say on this pair?. Consistently for more than two months, I have been able to follow this pair and predict its movement almost perfectly

I predicted a level for bearish run last week and Gchf moved down significantly from that level and presently, I am on 90pips plus. I will hold my sell till am convinced not to do so after taking profits at two different levels of the recent bearish correction move.

I see this move as a correction move which could still extend to 1.4725-1.4745 before the bullish move continues. Should this pair reach this level and bounce off....we should be ready for a big bullish move to 1.4900 and beyond.

With the analytical chart below, someone might have a clearer picture.

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Is UJ set for the bearish continuation move?

UsdJpy could be set for a new bearish adventure...Check the analytical chart below

GbdAud weekly analysis 21st-25th April

A head and shoulder which started on November last year was broken last month.

Presently,for almost 1 week, price has been trying to retest the neckline of this head and shoulder.

I'm also expecing wave 4 to be formed at this neckline before a new bearish takes off to hit 1.7490 where the bullish trend should continue.

I will watch price bearish signal at the neckline and ride to 1.7490 if the market gives me its back before I look forward to fly up again.

Many parameters are converging at 1.7490 which makes it a magnetic zone for price.

A picture speaks louder than a thousand words....what about 2 Pictures?

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Gbpchf analysis 21st-25th April 2014

If you have been following me, you would have discovered how I have almost perfectly followed this pair. 

On 13th April, I predicted a bullish run high up and provided a possible reversal zone signalling end of wave 5 and successful formation of a gartley pattern....

Now this level is approaching and am just right there in advance looking for price action around 1.4860-1.4885 before paddling my boat to start a fresh bearish journey. 

You could also watch this level

A picture speaks louder than a thousand words, check the analytical chart below. 

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Eur/Usd Analysis for 21st to 25th April 2014

This pair started the bearish mid-term run on 11th April and retraced upward 3days after to prepare for more bearish run.

The trend outlook is still bullish and if the bearish mid-term run should continue, I expect it to end at 1.3735 which is a nice reversal zone from elliot wave and harmonic pattern point of view at a strong support level..

I will wait to buy at the indicated zone/level if I see a bullish signal.

A picture speaks more than a thousand words, check my analytical chart below.

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GbpUsd ABC bearish correction?

I expect an ABC bearish correction on this pair...This pair has given me 220 pips since last week.

I see a deep cab pattern has formed already, so I expect market reaction to be bearish. 

A picture speaks louder than a thousand words. Check the chart below

The wave 5 could be completed because of the following parameters:

1. 1.618 fibo extension of wave 1 from wave 2

2. 1.13 deep retracement of the prior downward move thereby forming a deep crab pattern

3. A resistance trendline

4. A pin bar forming on the daily chart

I expect this bearish move (if it happens) to be an ABC correction which could go deep to 50% ret (at 1.6700), 61.8%ret (at 1.6650) or 1.6600 ofthe upward move from 1.6460.

Why i will consider buying Gbpchf this week

Picture , they say, speaks louder than a thousand words...check the chart below for how I analysed Gbpchf

What do you think of UsdCad? A bullish retracement?

I see UsdCad retracing to 1.1010 befor a possible bearish continuation if the bear doesnt take over

GbpUsd might decline to resume another bullish BOOM

This pair is clearly trending up. According to my analysis, we might have a dip at any of these levels for a significant bearish retracement

1. 1.6820

2. 1.6885

3. 1.702-3

Presently, the cable is forming the possible retracement at 1.6820 to further push up to 1.702 and I would trade it if the momentum is well trending.

1.667-8 could be a realistic target if this is a real corrective reversal to push up to 1.702 as I earlier mentioned.

 The analytical chart below showed my parameters @ 1.6820

UsdJpy could form a dip!

This market is still in a very strong Uptrend and it's still maintaining it.
Presently we see a falling triangle formed on daily time frame which if broken could send this pair up significantly.

Price is presently at the top of the afformentioned triangle and with the harmonic pattern formed at a falling trendline in H4, we could have a dip to 101.5 before the bullish trend resumes

If i see a bearish engulfing bar on H4, i will sell this pair and expect to ride to 101.60 before thinking where this market would go.

Gbpchf to resume the bearish trend?

This pair really gave me a lot in the past two weeks. I have been buying at different positions and made more than 250 pips. But I see the recent bullish move could be a mere correction of the bearish trend we've been having.

I think it could be time for the bearish trend to resume, and if it is ready to resume, we could be in for mouth watering galore of PIPS

This is why i think the bearish could resume
1. the 4H has formed a bearsish gartley at a strong bearish trend line
2. the bearish formation is accompanied with a bearish candlestick formation
3. the momentum indicator on 4H is overbought and trending down while on D1 is overbought too but not trending down yet

If this pair will trend down as predicted, we should be expecting an initial movement to 1.4630 where we could see a buy signal to push up.

 If there is no sign of the bulls then price could drive down  below 1.4500 and then to 1.4400
Good luck to you all

If this analysis has been helping someone, pls drop a comment.Thank you

EurUsd making a false breakout

EurUsd is making a false breakout

Check the chart below

I expect GbpChf Bullish Run to Coninue

After raking about 100 pips from trading the bullish gartley harmonic pattern I earlier mentioned. The pattern is still intact, though undergoing a minor retracement due to the formation of a pin bar.

I still maintain a bullish bias looking at the 4H chart below, the 4^th Elliot wave could end @ 1.4555 to resume a fresh bullish move (wave 5) to 1.4690-1.4700       (confluence of strong resistance and 50%-61.8% retracement of the bearish run which started on 5^th march)

AUDCHF Weekly Outlook

This pair looks like forming a good formation, rising from a bounce off the established upward trendline after a bullish candles formation.

The price is heading toward strong resistance @ 0.8045.

A bearish candles formation off this level could create a bounce and price gets bearish to 0.7900 or lower.

If price breaks 0.8045 upward, the next visible level is 0.8175 .If price turns back before 0.8175, we could have a bearish harmonic set-up

4 reasons why Gbpchf could be bullish

I have been watching this pair for some time and I think it has fulfilled my 'righteousness' enough to consider for a buy.Here are my reasons
1. A successful bullish gartley pattern formed

2. Pattern confirmed by an engulfing candles formation which also contain a bullish reversal pin bar, though the day is still open

3.The gartley formed at a reversal trendline support region

4. The oscillator trending up from an oversold region

These are more than enough reasons to consider a buy, though 1.4640 could act as a barrier.  

A consolidation could happen there before the price move to 1.4850 which is the ultimate target

4 Reasons for selling EurGbp tomorrow

Check this pair out and see four reasons one might consider to sell this pair

1. Successful bearish butterfly pattern formed

2. Pattern confirmed by a bearish candlestick ( provided it's maintained till the end of today's candle

3. Pattern and bearish candle formed at a strong resistance level ( 1.8390)

4. Momentum indicator at overbought region.......

If today's candle engulfs yesterday's candle..I will definitely open a sell order 

EURNZD FORMING BULLISH

From September last year till now, this pair has been ranging. After forming a resistance at 1.6675, it moved down steadily to retest 1.6255 with a pin bar candle. 

I expect a movement up from there to 1.6465 and 1.6600 which are going to be my targets with my stop loss below the pin bar. 

Price could dip lower with about 30-45 pips before the predicted move. As usual my buy limit will be at 1.6285

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EurUsd bearish?

This pair was on an irregular trendy bearish wave pattern from mid-December 2013 to late January and early February this year before it commenced on a sweet bullish run to 1.377s and it remained there to form a resistance. It broke this level on Friday 28th February with a long bullish candle to retest the 1.38 - 1.381 resistance formed on December 2013

We have seen this week, so far, how price reversed below this level and formed an inside bar and pin bar set ups.

I expect price to retest 1.3755-1.3770 or a little bit more before it starts the bearish reversal to 1.366s-77s and the stop loss could be above the middle candle.This scenerio will be invalid if price returns to 1.38100 with a high momentum.

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Eurcad bearish formed

This pair looks good to my eyes with beautiful swinging patterns forming, which started on August 2012 (Zoom back your platform to view). A fall could be imminent ( at least at the short term).

The wave that formed from early January this year formed a bearish reversal candles pattern  at (1.5315-1.5320) , and tested 1.4970-80 briefly before resuming the swing upward to retest (1.5315-20) level.

The formation of a pin bar reversal candle at this level could force this pair to form a double top and drag it back to (1.4970-80) level and if broken could see it going down to 1.4426

On the other side, if the afformentioned pin bar is broken upside with a high momentum, we could see a bullish wave resumption to 1.6 levels.At the moment, I see this pair retesting 1.528s before moving toward 1.497s with stop loss a little pips above the pin bar. 

Trade at your own risk. 

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